# Marvel Jumpstart — Pack Rankings & Best Pairs

Live: https://drwu-htmls.vercel.app/marvel-jumpstart-rankings

Ranks every **MTG Arena "Jump Into Marvel Super Heroes"** packet, and every two-packet
pairing, for **box mode**: you and a friend each pick two 20-card packets, shuffle them
into one 40-card deck, and play. The tool tells you which **two packets** make the
strongest deck — ranked by shared plan / synergy first, raw card power second.

## Views
- **🏆 Best Pairs** — all two-packet combinations, sortable by Synergy / Overall / Mana simplicity. Click a row for the full math.
- **🎴 Pack Explorer / Tier List** — all 51 packets with estimated strength, filters, and source confidence.
- **🔥 Synergy Grid** — a color-coded heatmap of every pack-vs-pack pair score.
- **Data Sources / Methodology** — importers for your own tracked results, plus every source and the exact scoring.

## The honest data model (important)
- **Packet identity, colours, rarities, theme text, keyword mechanics** — source-backed (Wizards + MTGABuddy) → **high confidence**.
- **Per-packet card counts + rare-card lists** — from MTGA Jump Into Marvel packet data (MTGABuddy) → **medium confidence**. As of 2026-07-05, **all 51 of 51 packets** carry MTGABuddy per-type counts (computed by counting each card-type's slots, random slots counted once, every packet sums to 20) **and their MTGABuddy rare cards** (was 9 of 51; each packet's rare-card list matches its declared rare-slot count exactly). Not verified card-for-card against physical mini packs; some Arena slots are random.
- **Pair rankings are ESTIMATED.** There is **no public Jump In pair win-rate dataset**, so every pair score is a transparent heuristic, labelled low confidence. Import your own tracked results and they blend in via Bayesian smoothing (a 2-0 run can't outrank a big sample).
- **🔥 buzz** flags are editorial hype with citations — display-only, they do not change scores.

## Scoring (summary)
- **Packet score** = power + consistency + interaction + value (each 0–25).
- **Pair score** = shared-mechanic + payoff-density + consistency + interaction + curve + raw power, then optionally blended with imported results.

## Reality check (2026-07-05)
Two independent critics audited the pair rankings and profiles (one compiled the scoring code and ran it against all 1,275 pairs). Findings and the fixes applied:
- **Fake-synergy bug (fixed).** The draw category counted the generic `value` tag, which sits on most blue and black packets, so about 50 pairs that share no real mechanic were scoring high "draw synergy" from an adjective. Removed `value` from the draw category.
- **Broken sort (fixed).** The 10 seed picks were pinned to the top of "rank by synergy," so a synergy-17 pair outranked synergy-99 pairs. Removed the pin; the synergy sort is now a true numeric order. Curated picks still surface via the hero card and the Category winners.
- **Superlative tags (fixed).** "Best Draw Pair" was stamped on 52 pairs. Tags are now plain category labels (Card draw, Artifacts, Graveyard, and so on), not superlatives.
- **Estimate disclosure (fixed).** The `est` marker now sits on the Synergy, Power, and Total columns, not only Total, so it travels with the numbers that drive the sort.

## Pair profiles — 50 written, the rest data-only
The old build generated a "deck thesis / why it works / how to play" writeup for every one of the 1,275 pairs from **8 templates** with the names slotted in. That was fabrication at scale. Now:
- **50 curated pairs** carry a genuinely written, adversarially fact-checked profile (44 passed a skeptic first-pass, 6 were rewritten). They are grounded in each packet's real theme and flagged `✓ written profile`. Honesty is enforced: pairs whose halves do not truly combine say so plainly and are rated lower (9 of 50 are Casual).
- **Every other pair is data-only.** No templated narrative. The detail view shows the real packet facts (themes, colours, rares, counts) and the six scoring components under a clear "no written analysis for this specific pairing, the scores are an automated heuristic" label.

## Provenance
Resumed from a mobile Claude Code cloud session — branch `claude/marvel-jumpstart-rankings-5lhiiy`,
PR #5 (closed) in `7onething1/English-twitch-chat-GPT`. Built from a Vite/React/TypeScript
source to a static bundle and shipped here. Source app: `marvel-jump-pair-ranker/`.

## Sources
- Wizards — [booster themes](https://magic.wizards.com/en/news/announcements/marvel-super-heroes-jumpstart-booster-themes) · [event schedule](https://magic.wizards.com/en/news/mtg-arena/marvel-super-heroes-event-schedule)
- [MTGABuddy packet list](https://mtgabuddy.com/en/jump-in-packet-list/jump-into-marvel-super-heroes)
- [Untapped (Premier Draft card data)](https://mtga.untapped.gg/limited/draft/marvel-super-heroes/card-data) · [17Lands](https://www.17lands.com/) · [Limited Grades](https://www.limitedgrades.com/)
- [Scryfall — MSH](https://scryfall.com/sets/msh) · [MTGJSON](https://mtgjson.com/)
- [MTG Arena Zone — MSH Limited archetypes](https://mtgazone.com/marvel-super-heroes-msh-limited-archetypes-guide-and-example-decks/) · [Draftsim guide](https://draftsim.com/mtg-marvel-super-heroes-jumpstart/) · [Card Kingdom (buzz)](https://blog.cardkingdom.com/20-coolest-cards-in-marvel-super-heroes-jumpstart/)

Sibling of the `marvel-*` family on drwu-htmls (limited-deckbuilder, draft-targets, spec-targets, standard-feedback, commander-feedback, 2hg-tracker, life-tracker-v3, thanos-deck).