How Do You Know You Are Right?

A drum detective story, with all the wrong turns left in.

Someone tried to fix the drum sheet music for a Frank Zappa song called Watermelon In Easter Hay. Almost every step went wrong. This page is the record of how we found out, and the eight rules we wrote so it does not happen again. Built 6 September 2026.
What is in here
  1. The song, and what we were arguing about
  2. Mistake one: we looked it up in the wrong book
  3. The big idea: compare everything to luck
  4. The best trick we learned: test yourself with a wrong answer
  5. The bug that would have wrecked the file
  6. The eight rules
  7. So what is the answer?
  8. The evidence, for grown-ups

1The song, and what we were arguing about

Sheet music is a set of instructions. We were arguing about what one instruction means.

Sheet music tells a musician what to play. For drums, each line and space on the page means a different drum or cymbal. A mark high up might mean the hi-hat. A mark low down might mean the kick drum you hit with your foot.

The drummer on this song is Vinnie Colaiuta. Our sheet music for his part has 2,091 drum hits written across 105 bars of music.

Here is the argument. 1,316 of those hits have little brackets around them, like this: (note). Brackets mean play this one quietly. Drummers call a quiet hit a ghost note, because you barely hear it.

All 1,316 of those bracketed marks sit on the ride cymbal line. Somebody said that was a mistake, because ghost notes are a drum thing and not a cymbal thing. So a plan was made to delete all 1,316 of them.

Two questions that look like one question

Keeping these separate is the whole trick of this page.

Question A. Is the mark written correctly? This is a spelling question, and a rule book can answer it.

Question B. Did the drummer really play that? This is a history question. Only the recording can answer it, and you have to measure it.

Mixing these two up caused most of the mess below.

2Mistake one: we looked it up in the wrong book

Imagine trying to fix your bike using a cookbook.

To settle Question A, we needed a rule book. We used one called the Essential Dictionary of Music Notation by Gerou and Lusk. We quoted it three separate times.

Then we did something obvious that nobody had done. We searched the whole book for the words we were arguing about. A computer read all 82 scanned pages out loud, so to speak, and counted.

How many times that book says the words we needed

0 0 0

Zero times it says "ghost". Zero times it says "drum". Zero times it says "hi-hat".

The book is 160 pages about music writing, and it has nothing at all about drums. We had been quoting a cookbook to fix a bike.

The right book said the opposite thing

There is a proper rule book for drum sheet music. It was written by Norman Weinberg in 1994 and it is the standard drummers use. Here is the sentence that settles it:

It is recommended that parenthetical note heads be used to indicate ghost strokes. Ghost strokes written as parenthetical notes allow the use of this performance technique on any type of instrument (drums, cymbals, cowbells, etc.). Norman Weinberg, Guidelines for Drumset Notation, Percussive Notes, June 1994, printed page 20. Verified in ~/.claude/skills/notation-evidence-gate/refs/Weinberg-PercussiveNotes-1994-Drumset-Notation.pdf, PDF page 6 of 13, the page headed "PERCUSSIVE NOTES · JUNE 1994 20" and carrying "Ex. 11. Parenthetical Notes for Ghost Strokes".

Read that carefully. Any type of instrument, and it lists cymbals by name. So a quiet mark on a cymbal line is spelled perfectly correctly. The 1,316 marks are fine.

The plan was backwards

We were about to delete 1,316 marks for being wrong. They were right the whole time. Whoever wants to delete them now has to prove why, and nobody has.

One thing this does not settle. The rule book only answers Question A, the spelling. Whether Vinnie Colaiuta really played 1,316 quiet ride hits that day is Question B, and no rule book can ever answer that.

3The big idea: compare everything to luck

This one idea catches more bad answers than anything else on this page.

Say you flip a coin and guess heads or tails. Guessing at random, you will be right about 50% of the time. That 50% is your luck score.

Now say your friend guesses and gets 52% right. Nobody would call that friend psychic, because 52% is basically 50%. You would have to see something like 90% before it means anything.

Every measurement needs its luck score written right next to it. A number on its own tells you nothing.

Here is where that bit us. There was a second repair planned, adding about 172 foot hi-hat hits to the sheet music. The evidence for it looked like this:

The evidence that turned out to be nothing

35% of the spots had a hi-hat sound in them. That sounds good until you work out the luck score, which is 26%.

35% found
26% by pure luck
--------------------
1.35 times luck

Getting 1.35 times luck is like your friend guessing the coin right 52% of the time. Our rule now says anything under 1.5 times luck is not evidence at all. There was another number in the pile at 1.03 times luck, which is luck exactly.

A tiny number that fooled us

One test spat out a number written p = 2.75e-06. That is science-speak for "there is less than a 3 in a million chance this happened randomly", and it looks like a slam dunk.

That number appeared right beside the 1.35 times luck score above, and both came from the same data. The tiny number was measuring the wrong thing. The math behind it assumes every drum hit is separate from every other one, and drum hits in a song are nothing like separate. A drummer plays patterns.

A very impressive-looking number sitting beside a boring ratio is the exact shape of a finding that means very little.

4The best trick we learned: test yourself with a wrong answer

If your metal detector beeps at rocks, it is not finding gold.

We built a tool to line up the sheet music with the actual recording, so we could check whether the written notes matched the sounds. It reported that it matched things very well.

Then we tried something sneaky. We fed it a completely different song, another Zappa track called Joe's Garage, which this sheet music has nothing to do with. If the tool is any good it should fail badly.

What we fed itScoreShould be
The correct recording44.6%high
The wrong song entirely42.5%low

The wrong song scored almost the same

2.1 points apart. Our tool could barely tell the right song from a song it had never heard. Every result it had ever given us was worthless, and we had been believing them for days.

Then it got worse, and that was useful

We built a better tool and ran the same trick. This time we scored it two ways. Coverage counts how many notes it matched up. Wobble measures how much those matches disagree with each other.

Scored byCorrect songWrong songVerdict
Coverage, higher looks better96.89%99.48% WRONG SONG WON
Wobble, lower is better8.21 s28.87 s correct song won, 3.5x

Look at the top row. The wrong song got a better coverage score than the right song. Coverage pointed us in the wrong direction while looking like it was working.

Why coverage lies

Picture stretching a rubber band to touch a row of dots. If you are allowed to stretch it as much as you like, you can touch nearly every dot in any row, including a row you have never seen. Touching lots of dots proves nothing.

Wobble is honest because it asks a harder question. Once you have stretched the band, do the matches agree with each other? On the wrong song they do not. The band is twisted into a mess. We now score by wobble and never by coverage.

One result nobody was aiming for

We asked the computer to listen to the drum track and count the snare hits by itself, with no peeking at the sheet music. Depending on how picky we told it to be, it heard between 171 and 177 snare hits.

The sheet music says there are 193. That is a miss of about 8 to 11 percent, from a machine that was never told the answer.

Nobody tuned anything to hit that number, which is exactly what makes it worth something. The snare part of this sheet music is probably right.

5The bug that would have wrecked the file

One rubber stamp, 855 pages.

Sheet music files save space by sharing. If the same drum beat happens 855 times, the file stores it once and then points at it 855 times. Like one rubber stamp used on 855 pages.

This means that if you change the stamp, all 855 pages change with it.

In our file, one single beat was pointed at 855 times, and one single note was pointed at 1,316 times. That one note is all the ghost ride notes at once.

What happened when we tried to add 459 notes

we meant to add:        459 notes
what came out:       66,727 notes

We touched shared stamps, so every edit multiplied. That is 145 times too many notes, which would have turned the sheet music into nonsense.

It never got saved. We had a safety check that counted the notes before and after. The counts did not match, so the tool stopped and refused to write the file. A tool without that check would have shipped the broken version.

The fix is to make your own copy of a stamp before you change it. Then the other 854 pages keep the original.

We then checked the rest of the file. All nine instrument tracks share stamps this way. We checked our other tools too and found one more with the same bug waiting to happen. In that one, changing a single guitar finger position would have quietly rewritten up to 30 other places.

6The eight rules

Each one exists because we broke it first.

These are now a program that reads what we write and stops us before we publish a claim that breaks one. A STOP rule halts the work, and a CAREFUL rule asks us to think harder.

RuleIn plain words
Right bookSTOP Do not settle a drum question with a book that has no drums in it.
Say which lineSTOP A mark means nothing until you know which line of the staff it belongs to.
Show the luck scoreSTOP Never write a percentage without saying what luck alone would score.
Beat luck properlySTOP Under 1.5 times luck is not evidence. Stop calling it evidence.
Show your workingSTOP A timing claim must say how you lined the music up with the sound.
Paper is not soundCAREFUL A note's place on paper does not give you the millisecond it happened in the room.
Missing is not absentSTOP A chart that leaves something out tells you only that nobody wrote it down. The drummer may still have played it.
Music is not a metronomeCAREFUL Real players speed up and slow down, so one fixed stretch will never fit a whole song.

Run against the two documents that started all this, the checker found 16 STOP problems and 10 CAREFUL problems across 26 sentences, and blocked the work.

7So what is the answer?

Three things settled, one thing honestly unknown.

Settled: the 1,316 quiet ride marks stay

The proper drum rule book says quiet marks are allowed on any instrument, cymbals included. Deleting them was based on the wrong book.

Settled: do not add the 172 foot hi-hat hits

Every piece of evidence for it fell apart when we checked it. The best score was 1.35 times luck. A careful listening test hit only 2 out of 4 target moments.

Two different human drummers wrote this song out by hand, and neither one wrote a foot hi-hat part. One wrote 6 hits, the other wrote none across five pages of chart.

There is also a practical problem. We know roughly how many to add, and we have no idea where. There are 459 possible spots for about 172 hits, so filling them all would invent around 287 hits nobody has any evidence for.

Probably solved: the four sounds we were chasing

The whole hi-hat idea started with four specific moments in the recording where somebody heard a "chick" sound. We split the drums into separate tracks and tested all of them.

hi-hat track     1 of 4 moments
cymbals track    4 of 4 moments   <- all four
snare track      2 of 4 moments
kick track       1 of 4 moments
toms track       0 of 4 moments

All four turned up in the cymbals track. The hi-hat track caught one of them. And the sheet music already has 1,724 ride cymbal hits written in it.

So the simplest story that fits everything: those four sounds are cymbal hits that were already written down. There was never anything missing.

Honestly unknown: did he play 1,316 quiet ride hits?

We proved the marks are spelled correctly. We never proved the drummer played them. That is Question B from the top of the page, and it is still open.

"We do not know" is a real answer, and a better one than a made-up answer.

8The evidence, for grown-ups

The exact numbers, kept so anyone can check the work above.

What is written in the file

105 bars, 53x 4/4 + 52x 5/4, one tempo automation at 56 BPM, 472 quarter units

midi  name              count  ghosted
  36  Bass Drum 1         107        0
  40  Electric Snare      193        0
  44  Pedal Hi-Hat          6        0
  45  Low Tom               4        0
  46  Open Hi-Hat           1        0
  48  Hi-Mid Tom            2        0
  49  Crash Cymbal 1       53        1
  51  Ride Cymbal 1      1724     1316
  57  Crash Cymbal 2        1        0
TOTAL                    2091     1317

The listening test on the four moments

Target times 181.93, 183.03, 184.10 and 185.19 seconds. Signed distance to the nearest detected sound, same detector settings on every track.

tracksounds founddistances (ms)within 50 ms
hi-hat651+1890.8, +790.8, -279.2, -10.91 of 4
cymbals1341-36.5, +30.3, -29.6, -16.74 of 4
snare244-42.3, -62.6, -18.0, -289.52 of 4
kick474-315.1, -45.1, -1115.1, +546.41 of 4
toms240-3525.3, -4625.3, -5695.3, -6785.30 of 4

A separate hi-hat track from different separation software scored 2 of 4 at -48.1 and -33.5 ms. Two separations of the same recording disagreeing that hard means the result is about the software and is not a finding about the recording.

Loudness at those four moments

Energy in a 60 ms window either side of each moment, divided by that track's own typical loudness.

track       181.93    183.03    184.10    185.19
hi-hat       0.15x     0.25x     0.34x     4.84x
cymbals      5.20x     3.03x     2.80x     3.30x
snare      210.66x     9.04x   192.81x    13.11x
kick         3.62x   974.11x     0.74x     0.26x
toms         1.04x     1.51x     0.76x     0.35x

This rules one thing out. Three of the four moments are quieter than the hi-hat track's own average, so no setting recovers them from that track. The idea that the sound is there and the detector simply missed it is dead.

Lining up the music with the sound

Wobble is residual MAD in seconds. Lower is better. The control is a recording the sheet music does not describe.

testcorrectcontrolgapverdict
all 1,782 drum instants4.53 s31.52 s6.97x works
193 snare only, full mix108.51 s111.23 s1.03x no better than luck
193 snare vs isolated snare8.21 s28.87 s3.52x works
1,724 ride vs isolated cymbals7.47 s32.79 s4.39x works
7 hat vs isolated hi-hat1.72 s3.64 s2.12x too few to judge

Row two overturned a standing rule. Using the snare alone as the anchor was supposed to be the reliable method. Matching 193 sparse written hits into 1,901 dense detected sounds lets the stretch wander anywhere, so it scored exactly at luck. A sparse written side is only safe against an isolated track, where the sound side is sparse too.

The printed chart, read for the first time

Five pages of a published Drumnet chart for this song were on the same computer and had never been opened. They are ~/Projects/_outputs/zappa-drum-sources/06-drumnet/Watermelon-In-Easter-Hay_p1.jpg through _p5.jpg. Page one confirms the tempo at 55.47 and drums entering at 1:20, matching the score file bar for bar. The scans are small, so the drum systems were cropped and enlarged 5 times to read them.

Not one X notehead appears in the space below the staff, which is where a foot hi-hat would go. Sampled across bars 5 to 10, 17 to 22, 39 to 46, 61 to 68 and 83 to 88, counted on those five chart images and cross-checked against the bar numbering in the score file s35881-Watermelon-In-Easter-Hay/ORIGINAL-Frank Zappa-Watermelon In Easter Hay-07-04-2026.gp, which holds 105 bars. The chart does use a circled X above the line at bars 61 and 83. So this transcriber knew the hi-hat symbols and chose not to write a foot part.

Where each open problem belongs

Six methods here were hand-rolled and each has a proper published chapter behind it.

problemthe real reference
lining music up with audioMüller, Fundamentals of Music Processing ch.3, DTW at 3.2
finding where sounds startMüller ch.6.1
finding the beat and tempoMüller ch.6.2 and 6.3, Predominant Local Pulse
smearing from track separationMüller ch.8.1
building a luck score honestlyGood, Permutation Tests 2.2.2 Exchangeable Observations
do things cluster in timeGood ch.10, Mantel's U

Corrections found while checking this

Sources: Weinberg, Guidelines for Drumset Notation, Percussive Notes June 1994 · Gerou & Lusk, Essential Dictionary of Music Notation, full OCR census 2026-09-06 · Apel 1961 · Berklee BME-130 Lesson 5 · Müller, Fundamentals of Music Processing 2nd ed. · Lerch, An Introduction to Audio Content Analysis 2nd ed. · Klapuri & Davy 2006 · Good, Permutation, Parametric and Bootstrap Tests 3rd ed. · Efron & Hastie, Computer Age Statistical Inference · Ulrich, The Big Note 2018 · Drumnet chart, 5 pages.

Song s35881, Watermelon In Easter Hay, Frank Zappa. Drums by Vinnie Colaiuta. Checker at ~/.claude/skills/notation-evidence-gate/. The earlier technical version of this page is kept beside it in delete/.