Marvin's Phish Pick is a nightly Phish setlist prediction tool. Every night it forecasts the next show's setlist, six songs plus one likely bustout, drawn live from the phish.net API, then grades itself against what really played. Tonight is July 12, 2026 at Ruoff Music Center in Noblesville, Indiana (Summer 2026, show 5). Build your own six, share your card in Discord, and see if you can out-pick the oracle.
The oracle's top ten for Sunday 7/12, ranked deep enough to build an off-chalk card. Tap any card to open its rotation, venue history, 2025 slot record, and how the oracle has done with it this tour.
The lane now ranks by likelihood of returning, not by biggest gap. My Sweet One is a 253-play staple that dropped out only 63 shows ago and was in rotation this January, far likelier to resurface than a song dead since the 1990s. Uncle Pen and the gap-600 covers move to the ledger as long shots.
Pick six songs and one bustout, then lock in your card next to the oracle's. Test your instincts against last night first to see how the scoring works.
Tap to choose up to six songs. 0 / 6 chosen
Self grading, right under the board, so the track record is always visible. Graded against the real setlist from the phish.net v5 API (https://api.phish.net/v5/setlists/showdate/2026-07-11.json).
Biggest gap played: No Quarter at 43, short of the 50-show line. Two nights running with no true bustout, which is why the bustout lane now favors likely returns over dormant records.
All 48 Phish shows of 2025 plus fan reviews (setlists/showyear/2025.json), tested against this tour.
2025 openers barely predict this tour, so the oracle drops them. 2025 encores call most of the slots, so tonight leans on Bug. Fan reviews focus on the long jams (Tweezer, Ghost, Light, Carini, Ruby Waves), so the calibration weights Set 2 vehicles and a strong encore.
Top 10, not top 5, on purpose: the top of each list is chalk everyone picks. The value tags flag songs still unplayed this tour, the deeper picks you take to climb a prediction leaderboard instead of tying the field.
Rolling v5 forecast with the 2-show cooldown. Both Savannah nights are venue debuts, so no venue signal applies. Bustouts ranked by likely return.
Gap ≥ 50, ranked by likelihood of returning (recent activity, established, moderate gap), not by raw gap. The long shots at the bottom are the old most-overdue picks.
| Song | Gap | Times | Last | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Sweet One · tonight's pick | 63 | 253 | 2026-01 | most likely |
| The Landlady | 52 | 215 | 2025-04 | likely |
| If I Could | 59 | 68 | 2025-04 | likely |
| Strange Design | 51 | 68 | 2025-06 | likely |
| Sleeping Monkey | 58 | 96 | 2025-04 | likely |
| Axilla | 75 | 113 | 2024-08 | plausible |
| Uncle Pen · old overdue pick | 328 | 212 | 2017 | long shot |
| Highway to Hell | 648 | 77 | 2009 | long shot |
A forecast, not a spoiler. Every meter is a lean, not a lock.
Bathtub Gin, 46 Days, Split Open and Melt, Rift, Stash, Piper, 2001, Simple, What's the Use?, and Bug for the ending.
We changed our wild-card guess. Before we picked the song they had NOT played in the longest time. Now we pick the one most likely to come back. That is My Sweet One, a song they played back in January.