Using Math to Decide How Many Bad Cards to Run
- Commander decks often have a pre-engine phase with limited card access and a post-engine phase where drawing extra cards makes individual card quality less important.
- Including some situational or weak cards can be acceptable if the deck can reliably reach the post-engine state.
- Hypergeometric probabilities show that with about five situational blanks, the chance of drawing multiple such cards early is low.
- Fast lands entering untapped early demonstrate how situational cards can be reliable when later card selection becomes available.
- Categorize nonland cards into three buckets: high-quality enablers, situational blanks, and general support to assess early-game consistency.
- Use a hypergeometric calculator to check that the probability of drawing an engine starter is high and the probability of drawing multiple blanks is low.
- If the number of bucket two cards grows into double digits, the risk of drawing too many dead early cards rises and can disrupt deck function.
- A Radha, Heir to Keld deck runs a single humorous seven-drop like Tyrant of Discord as a bucket two card that does not harm early consistency.
- Protection spells like Heroic Intervention are dead early but valuable later, exemplifying how situational cards can be included sparingly.
More quotes
- It might actually be okay to have some bad cards in your deck.
- You can check how often you won't draw cards you don't want.
- I think of a lot of Commander decks as having two very distinct phases, pre-engine and post-engine.
- Getting to purge the trash for the first time in a game and sculpt a hand of seven beautiful, situationally applicable cards, delicious.
- You can almost think about all of these bucket two bad cards as blank for the purposes of your early game.
- Craft the foundation of your deck in a way that's maximally consistent and flexible, and the amount of room to sprinkle garbage into that bad boy might just surprise you.
- My Radha Heir to Keld deck has a single permanent funny seven drop deck slot. It was occupied by Panglacial Wurm in the past, and it's currently occupied by Tyrant of Discord, both not very good creatures.
- Treat this as your reward for being such a responsible deck builder in other ways.
- The first three turns of the game are the ones where you're going to be the hardest pressed to have a land that both enters untapped and gives the colors you need, and fast lands fill this exact profile.
- With any other commander, this deck's ratios would make no sense at all and it would flail around doing nothing most of the time.
Full transcript
I'm working on a little project right now, and I need your help.
All the details are on a YouTube post I'm linking, but basically I'm building a deck around an unknown event card created for me using feedback from both my in-person opponents and my online audience.
If you want to suggest cards that could go in the deck, you can do that under the YouTube post; and if you want to guarantee an on-color card going in the deck, you can send it to my PO box, address in the description.
With that said, let's get to the topic of your horrible pet cards.
Let's say you have a type of card that you want to see in a lot of games with a given deck: a mana rock, a one mana creature that gains life, or something else.
If that's the case, it can be helpful to run some calculations on how often you'll draw it, either by using a hypergeometric calculator like the one on my website, or by referencing the built-in calculators that a deck building website like Architect might have.
At this point, a lot of players are aware of these sorts of tools, but what they might not be aware of is that you can do the opposite; you can check how often you won't draw cards you don't want.
And just as you could use this to decide how many of a desirable card to include, you could do the same to decide how few of an undesirable card type to add, because it might actually be okay to have some "bad cards" in your deck.
But hold on, let's take a step back here.
What do I mean when I say "bad card," and why would I want to run any of these?
Starting with that first question, the card we're talking about could truly be a "bad card." My Radha, Heir to Keld deck has a single permanent funny seven drop deck slot; it was occupied by Panglacial Wurm in the past, and it's currently occupied by Tyrant of Discord, with both of these being not very good creatures.
However, the meaning of "bad card" could also be a bit more complicated, being a card that is either situational or bad without certain other cards to support it.
As one example, in three different grindy decks I play, there's a card present that is there entirely for the purpose of life gain.
These cards are pretty worthless outside of this task, but they do an admirable job in a mid-to-late game situation where my life total is in a state of peril.
As another example, in my bracket two deck, I run a couple artifact creatures that untap things.
These cards on their own are terrible, but paired with other cards, they can be pretty powerful; and Voltaic Construct is technically part of a convoluted infinite combo the deck can assemble.
As a final example, protection spells fit both of these criteria as cards that aren't useful until you're doing something worth protecting, and whose usefulness isn't realized until an opponent tries to disrupt you.
So, this is what I mean when I say "bad cards": cards that frequently don't feel very good to draw for one reason or another, particularly in the early game.
But why does the category I'm constructing treat these different types of cards as the same?
And if they're bad in some sense, then why run them in the first place?
The answer is that I think of a lot of Commander decks as having two very distinct phases, "pre-engine" and "post-engine." In the early phases of a game, you only have access to a very small number of cards, and a lot of decks gain access to additional cards through the synergies between these early cards.
This could take a lot of different forms: maybe you have a Wall of Omens and a Teleportation Circle; maybe you follow up your Caustic Bronco with an Ishin; maybe you curve Thran Dynamo into a Pull from Tomorrow; maybe you just play a standalone draw engine like an Esper Sentinel or a Phyrexian Arena, or even a series of one-off spells like Night's Whisper and Harmonize.
Regardless, you're using stuff from your more limited early game card pool to help your deck reach a state where it's online and has access to a much wider range of the different tools within it.
And there are actually a lot of things that can help with this: card draw, tutors, filtering, ramp, synergy pieces that assist with any of those last four things.
All of these can help you build up to a point where you have access to a greater amount of your library.
Removal and defensive cards can also help with this, since they buy you the time to get that engine up and going.
Different cards will help different amounts with this, but quite a lot of cards will assist at least a little bit.
All of this is well and good, but you might still be wondering why exactly I'm drawing this "pre-engine" and "post-engine" distinction.
The answer is that once you're cycling through a more significant amount of your deck per turn, whether or not each individual card is useful in a wide variety of situations starts to become a lot less important.
If I draw five cards and one of them isn't that useful to me right now, that's okay; I still drew four other cards.
This is also the point of the game where you're going to start discarding to hand size if you don't have a Reliquary Tower effect, and this is one of my favorite points in the game to be in, getting to purge the trash for the first time in a game and sculpt a hand of seven beautiful, situationally applicable cards, delicious.
As a slight tangent, this sort of reasoning is also why I like a type of budget dual land that a lot of other people seem to dislike, the humble fast land.
A land that enters tapped if you control three or more other lands might seem kind of bad in theory.
In the average bracket three Commander game, you're hopefully making at least seven land drops; so, in less than half of land drops will this land enter untapped.
However, turn four and beyond is also a point in the game at which a lot of decks will be drawing or looting or otherwise filtering, enabling them to find their way to a variety of different lands with relative ease.
The first three turns of the game are the ones where you're going to be the hardest pressed to have a land that both enters untapped and gives the colors you need, and fast lands fill this exact profile.
So, if your deck is one that rounds a corner and starts to see a lot more cardboard at some point, having a somewhat subpar or situational card is a lot less of a problem from that point onward.
But what does this mean for the early game?
Well, as I suggested earlier, you can do a bit of math to see how likely it is for your game plan to get online.
One option here is to separate your non-land cards into three buckets.
"Bucket one" is high-quality drawn filtering, stuff that finds you what you need to succeed quickly and easily.
"Bucket two" is stuff that's basically useless for getting your deck online: hyper-situational cards, protection spells, later game tech pieces, finishers, and stuff that's just kind of bad that you include for shits and giggles, as is your god-given right.
"Bucket three" is all the other stuff outside of these two categories: ramp, removal, somewhat narrower draw, and sometimes applicable tech pieces.
Now, you perform two different checks here.
For one, how likely is it for you to draw one of your "bucket one" cards, your premium quality enablers?
The larger this number is, the better; but there are certainly reasons why this number could be lower for some decks.
Question two is how likely it is for you to draw one of your "bucket two" cards that helps you very little in the early game, and possibly more importantly, how likely is it for you to draw multiple of these?
If you're running five or so hyper-situational cards, the odds of drawing more than one of these is quite low.
By contrast, if that number starts creeping up into the double digits, you might have games where you draw an Overwhelming Stampede and a Heroic Intervention in your first 10 cards of the game, a Fervor and a Full Throttle, a Clever Concealment and a Storm Herd.
You can almost think about all of these "bucket two" bad cards as blank for the purposes of your early game.
Having a lot of these is generally going to slow your timeline for getting off the ground and lead to more stall outs; but you can counterbalance these tendencies with a greater amount of "bucket one" cards, high quality draw and filtering.
Hitting a string of situational cards you won't want until later in the game can be a problem, but it might not be if you have a lot of filtering and draw and tutors at the ready to cut you through this dead air.
I mean, don't let me stop you from living your best life, especially if you're in more bracket two territory, but the realistic answer is that it depends on what the rest of your deck is doing.
If we're talking about some terrible pet cards that you would literally die for, take a look at how many other cards you're running that you'd be kind of bummed to draw before turn five.
If that number is very low, you're probably okay to add some garbage to your deck; treat this as your reward for being such a responsible deck builder in other ways.
If that number is stretching into double digits territory, you'll want to be a bit more careful.
How much general purpose draw and filtering are you running?
How broadly useful is your commander for generating resources and helping your deck get going?
My deck with the highest number of "bucket two" cards is my Meria of Ultron deck with a ton of protection as well as equipments to give extra damage and evasion.
With any other commander, this deck's ratios would make no sense at all and it would flail around doing nothing most of the time.
However, because Meria is a sweet draw engine and one of the best mana producers in the game, and because my deck is pretty decent at protecting her, it ends up working out most of the time.
Likewise, it's not a coincidence that my one bracket three deck where I allow myself to indulge in significantly more janky pet cards is also one where I have a mana dork commander and a massive pile of four cost ramp spells and six to seven cost bombs that I'm pretty much always happy to draw.
Craft the foundation of your deck in a way that's maximally consistent and flexible, and the amount of room to sprinkle garbage into that bad boy might just surprise you.
Thanks for watching.
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