# The 2026 Preseason Receipts Ledger

**Their 2026 calls are on record now. This logs them in three separate ledgers, ETR house rankings, Ship Chasing panel opinions, and Davis Mattek under his own name, so each gets graded against the box score next winter.**

Calls: public record through July 25 2026. Reality pending the season. Grade after Week 17, against acquisition cost and tournament structure. Logged 2026-07-25.

Live page: https://drwu-htmls.vercel.app/ship-chasing-etr-2026-tracker
Graded companion: https://drwu-htmls.vercel.app/ship-chasing-etr-reality-2025

## Why three separate ledgers

Keep three records apart: ETR's house rankings (blended projections, algorithms, staff judgment), Ship Chasing panel opinions (an episode often names a player without naming the host who backed the call), and statements Davis Mattek made under his own name. Where a named speaker owns a call, it is tagged to that person. Where only the show owns it, it is tagged panel, attribution pending, and it waits for episode transcripts before a final grade.

A fair ledger records six things per call: date, player, direction, draft price, named speaker, confidence.

## 01. Establish The Run, house rankings (Ep 993, July 2, blended)

Market-disagreement episode with Levitan, Silva, Herzig, Miller. Blended company rankings, ETR house ledger.

- **Higher than the market:** Jayden Daniels (QB), Derrick Henry (RB), Garrett Wilson (WR), DK Metcalf (WR), Brock Purdy (QB), Jordan Addison (WR), Kyler Murray (QB), Cooper Kupp (WR).
- **Lower than the market:** Makai Lemon (WR), Rome Odunze (WR), Omarion Hampton (RB), DJ Moore (WR), Michael Wilson (WR), Josh Allen (QB), Quinshon Judkins (RB), Brian Thomas Jr. (WR).

Named owners on top of the house rank:
- **Jayden Daniels** carries Justin Herzig's published "My Guys" case: rushing floor, improved lower-body health, more under-center snaps in Washington.
- **Makai Lemon** drew Silva's detailed bear case (limited work in Philadelphia's primary receiver packages, run-heavy plan). ETR ranked him 104 against the market's 88, a sixteen-pick gap.

## 02. Ship Chasing, panel opinions (attributed + pending)

### Host-attributed (public writing)

| Player | Dir | The 2026 call | Speaker | Reality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins (WR, CIN) | Love | "Un-sexy favourite," Underdog ADP 34.7, even-year bet at the Round 3-4 turn | Sanderson | PENDING |
| Blake Corum (RB, LAR) | Love | 2026 sleeper around pick 104, should not go 65 picks behind Kyren Williams | Overzet | PENDING |
| Kyren Williams (RB, LAR) | Fade | "Might be the worst pick on the board" at his ADP | Overzet | PENDING |
| George Kittle (TE, SF) | Love | Asymmetric upside bet, worth the question marks | Overzet | PENDING |
| Travis Hunter (WR, JAX) | Love | Asymmetric upside bet, worth the question marks | Overzet | PENDING |

### Panel, attribution pending

Speaker for every call below: panel. The player is on record, the individual supporter is still unnamed.

**July 8, renaissance veterans**
- Revival, up: Christian McCaffrey (RB), Rico Dowdle (RB), Saquon Barkley (RB), Mike Evans (WR), Chris Godwin (WR), Michael Pittman Jr. (WR).
- Black marbles, down: Travis Etienne (RB), J.K. Dobbins (RB), Aaron Jones (RB), Davante Adams (WR), Chris Godwin (WR), Courtland Sutton (WR).
- Flag: Chris Godwin lands in both groups, so the panel disagreed with itself. His call needs a named speaker before grading.

**July 1, best and worst stacks**
- Patrick Mahomes (rebound), Brandon Aiyuk (direction questioned), Quentin Johnston (price rising), Chargers with Keaton Mitchell (tournament stack), Malik Nabers (momentum falling), Jaxson Dart (momentum falling).

**Recurring returns and July 23 depth charts**
- Keaton Mitchell, Chris Rodriguez, Jonathan Brooks, Luther Burden, Antonio Williams. A strategy of buying uncertain roles before camp resolves them across Chicago, Green Bay, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Denver, Washington.

## 03. Davis Mattek, under his own name (Mind of Mansion, July 5)

| Player | Dir | The call | Speaker | Reality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Tyson (WR, rookie) | Love | Named as possessing major upside | Mattek | PENDING |
| DK Metcalf (WR) | Love | "Trapped elite talent," a buy the situation is holding down | Mattek | PENDING |

Thesis: ordinary secondary receivers have become weak fantasy purchases. A market-shape call, graded next winter by whether mid-round complementary receivers returned value as a group.

Everything Davis only touched on a Ship Chasing episode stays in Ledger 02 under the panel tag, marked show discussion, until a transcript puts a specific player in his mouth.

## 04. Reading the ledger (no transcript needed)

How these 2026 calls sit against the graded 2025 board, and which calls a name already owns.

**Where 2026 argues with 2025**

| Player | 2025 result | 2026 call | The tension |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne (RB) | Market bust call was wrong, finished RB10 | Panel fade, black marble again | They are fading the back who just beat the consensus fade. |
| Courtland Sutton (WR) | Kerrane buy, hit at WR13 | Panel fade | A 2025 hit the panel now wants to sell. |
| Chris Godwin (WR) | Kerrane buy, missed on injury | Panel split, revival and negative | The room does not agree, so the grade waits on a name. |
| Derrick Henry (RB) | 2025 title-winning build anchor, RB8 | ETR bull | The house backs the same player again. |
| George Kittle (TE) | Kerrane pick, underperformed at TE13 | Overzet bet | A second swing on the same ceiling. |

**The sharpest grades to watch:** Makai Lemon (ETR 104 vs market 88), Josh Allen (ETR bear on an elite QB), DK Metcalf (ETR and Mattek both buy), Chris Godwin (panel self-split), Travis Etienne (re-fade after RB10).

**Attribution status, plainly.** Already owned by a name: the full ETR house sheet (company, with Herzig on Daniels and Silva on Makai Lemon), Davis Mattek's own-name calls, and the five host-attributed Ship Chasing writes from Sanderson and Overzet. Still panel and transcript-gated: the July 8 renaissance and black-marble groups, the July 1 stack calls, and the recurring uncertain-role names. Those wait on episode transcripts, skipped this pass, and stay tagged panel until a transcript names the supporter.

## What happens next winter

Closing draft price is the hinge. An excellent July read can turn into an expensive September pick, so season grading compares production against acquisition cost and tournament structure, not raw total points. After Week 17, each cell turns green or red on that basis, the panel calls get their named owners from transcripts, and this page redeploys with verdicts next to the 2025 board.

## Method, attribution, and honesty notes

- No reality is assigned because the 2026 season has not been played. Unknown stays blank until the games decide.
- Calls come from the public record through July 25 2026 (ETR articles and disagreement episode, cited Ship Chasing episodes, Mattek's own-name appearance), logged from those published records and summaries, without an independent transcript. Ship Chasing group calls stay tagged panel, attribution pending.
- Draft prices are as cited and will drift before Week 1. ETR ranks are blended house rankings, with Herzig named on Daniels and Silva named on the Makai Lemon bear case. Team labels are given only where a 2026 role is settled.

## Sources

1. ETR ep 993, "Where ETR Ranks Disagree Most With the Market": https://podcastrex.com/shows/establish-the-run-fantasy-football/where-etr-ranks-disagree-most-with-the-market-and-why-episode-993-with-adam-levitan-evan-silva-justin-herzig-jack-miller
2. Herzig, "My Guys for 2026," Establish The Run: https://establishtherun.com/herzig-my-guys/
3. Ship Chasing, "6 Old RBs & WRs Primed For A Renaissance in 2026" (July 8): https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/6-old-rbs-wrs-primed-for-a-renaissance-in-2026/id1521036457?i=1000775942702
4. Ship Chasing, "The Best & Worst Stacks In 2026, ADP Chasing" (July 1): https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-best-worst-stacks-in-2026-adp-chasing/id1521036457?i=1000774991202
5. Ship Chasing, "Predicting Future ADP Risers & Fallers" (July 23): https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/predicting-future-adp-risers-fallers-qb-rb-wr-te/id1521036457?i=1000777866884
6. Ship Chasing, "The League Winners Hiding In Ambiguous Situations": https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-league-winners-hiding-in-ambiguous-situations/id1521036457?i=1000778011459
7. Davis Mattek, "Mind of Mansion, Best Ball Cheat Codes" (July 5): https://podcastrex.com/shows/playerprofiler-fantasy-football-podcast-network/mind-of-mansion-davis-matteks-best-ball-cheat-codes
8. Jakob Sanderson, "Five Un-Sexy Favourites in 2026 Best Ball": https://jakobsanderson.substack.com/p/five-un-sexy-favourites-in-2026-best
9. Peter Overzet, 2026 Zero-RB best-ball strategy: https://www.fantasylife.com/articles/best-ball/zero-rb-best-ball-mock-draft-is-it-viable-2026-strategy-underdog

House voice held: no em-dash, no ellipsis, no antithesis, no contrastive however or though or yet or while.